Violent Extremism, Radicalisation Pathways, and Counter-Terrorism Policy Effectiveness in the Lake Chad Basin: A Complex Multi-Level Analysis

This study undertakes a complex multi-level analysis of violent extremism, radicalisation pathways, and counter-terrorism policy effectiveness in the Lake Chad Basin, with particular attention to Borno, Yobe, and Adamawa states in Nigeria. The persistence of Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa Province activities despite over a decade of counter-terrorism operations demands a theoretically sophisticated and empirically grounded reassessment of the factors driving radicalisation and the effectiveness of policy responses. Drawing on radicalisation theory, counter-terrorism policy evaluation frameworks, and recent violent extremism literature from 2020 to 2024, the study employs a multi-level mixed-methods research design. Quantitative analysis uses ACLED conflict incident data and original survey data from 360 respondents including former combatants in deradicalisation programmes, community members, and security sector personnel. Multilevel regression modelling examines individual, community, and state-level predictors of radicalisation vulnerability. Sixty in-depth qualitative interviews with deradicalisation programme managers, community religious leaders, military intelligence officers, and human rights monitors provide process-level analysis. The study's original theoretical contribution is the Multi-Level Radicalisation Ecosystem Model, which integrates push-pull-enabling factors across individual psychology, community social capital, governance grievance, and geopolitical network dimensions into a unified explanatory architecture. This framework advances beyond single-level radicalisation theories and has methodological implications for counter-terrorism programme design. Findings contribute theoretical innovations applicable to violent extremism prevention policy globally. Keywords: violent extremism, radicalisation, counter-terrorism, Lake Chad Basin, multi-level analysis