Longitudinal Analysis of Labor Market Transitions for Vocational Education Graduates in South West Nigeria

This study conducted a longitudinal analysis of labor market transitions for vocational education graduates in South West Nigeria, tracking a cohort of 800 graduates from technical colleges and polytechnics in Lagos, Ogun, and Oyo States over a four-year post-graduation period. Longitudinal evidence on the labor market trajectories of vocational graduates in Nigeria is exceptionally scarce, limiting the policy evidence base for human capital investment decisions. Using panel survey methods and event history analysis, the study modeled the timing, type, and quality of employment transitions, as well as incidence and duration of unemployment spells. Results showed that the median time to first relevant employment was 7.3 months, with significant variation by trade area, institution type, and gender. Garment making, ICT servicing, and food processing graduates demonstrated the fastest and most stable employment transitions. Female graduates experienced significantly longer unemployment spells (median = 11.1 months vs. 5.8 for males), attributed to discrimination and household responsibility burdens. Over 60 percent of graduates made at least one transition between employment and self-employment within four years. The study recommends targeted post-graduation transition support including employment placement services, gender-responsive enterprise support, and flexible re-entry programmes for graduates with employment interruptions. Keywords: labor market transitions, vocational graduates, longitudinal study, South West Nigeria, event history analysis.