Markov Chain Analysis of Customer Loyalty Behaviour in Nigerian Telecommunications: Evidence from MTN Subscribers in Enugu State

Customer retention in the Nigerian telecommunications industry has intensified as competition among major network providers reaches saturation levels in urban markets. This study employs discrete-time Markov chain models to analyse subscriber switching behaviour and predict long-run market share distribution among the four major operators: MTN, Airtel, Glo, and 9mobile, using a sample of 400 subscribers in Enugu State, South East Nigeria. Monthly switching and retention probabilities are estimated from primary survey data collected over a six-month observation period. The transition probability matrix is constructed and tested for stationarity using the chi-square homogeneity test. Steady-state probabilities are derived algebraically to project equilibrium market share under current switching dynamics. Results indicate that MTN retains the highest steady-state share at 47.3 percent, while 9mobile's equilibrium share is projected to decline to 6.1 percent without intervention. Sensitivity analysis demonstrates that a 10 percent improvement in MTN's retention probability shifts its equilibrium share upward by 4.2 percentage points. The study identifies network quality and data bundle pricing as the primary drivers of switching decisions, based on regression analysis of survey responses. Findings provide actionable intelligence for churn reduction strategies in the South East market. Keywords: Markov chain, customer loyalty, telecommunications, switching behaviour, steady-state probability.