Monitoring Seasonal Vegetation Dynamics in Bauchi State Using NDVI Time Series

Vegetation dynamics in the Guinea Savanna zone of North East Nigeria respond sensitively to seasonal rainfall patterns and land use pressures. This study monitors seasonal vegetation dynamics in Bauchi State using an 8-year NDVI time series derived from MODIS Terra satellite imagery. Monthly NDVI composites from 2015 to 2023 are analysed to characterise phenological patterns including the start, peak, and end of the growing season across different vegetation zones. Mann-Kendall trend analysis identifies statistically significant greening or browning trends at the pixel level. Results reveal a complex spatial pattern with greening trends in areas under active agricultural expansion offset by browning trends near urban centres and along major roads. Communities in Alkaleri and Toro LGAs show the most pronounced seasonal variability linked to erratic rainfall distribution. The study recommends incorporating NDVI monitoring into the Bauchi State Agricultural Development Programme's seasonal assessment protocol. Keywords: NDVI, vegetation dynamics, MODIS, phenology, Bauchi State