Nuclear Latency and Proliferation Risk Perceptions in Northeast Asia

Background: Growing public and elite discourse within South Korea and Japan regarding potential independent nuclear deterrent development, prompted by sustained North Korean nuclear and missile advancement and periodic uncertainty regarding United States extended deterrence commitments through 2023 and 2024, has elevated proliferation risk concerns within the broader Northeast Asian security order. Aims/objectives: This research examines the diplomatic and strategic factors shaping nuclear latency considerations among South Korea and Japan and the implications for regional nonproliferation norms. Method: A qualitative analysis of public opinion polling data, parliamentary debate transcripts, and interviews with nonproliferation and Northeast Asian security specialists was conducted covering developments between 2022 and 2024. Results: Findings indicate that domestic political support for independent nuclear options increased measurably alongside North Korean provocations, though official government positions in both states maintained continued reliance on United States extended deterrence augmented through enhanced consultative mechanisms rather than independent proliferation. Trilateral and bilateral consultative bodies expanded significantly during the period as confidence-building measures. Conclusion: The study concludes that nuclear latency discourse functions primarily as diplomatic leverage to strengthen extended deterrence assurances rather than as a genuine near-term pathway toward independent proliferation. Continued investment in robust consultative mechanisms is recommended to manage allied reassurance needs without triggering destabilizing proliferation dynamics in the region.

Keywords: nuclear proliferation, extended deterrence, Northeast Asia security, North Korea, nonproliferation diplomacy