Original Contributions to the Theory of Real Estate Valuation Bias in Emerging Markets: Evidence from Nigeria

This dissertation makes original theoretical and empirical contributions to the understanding of systematic bias in real estate valuation in emerging market contexts, developing a theoretical framework for the institutional and behavioural sources of valuation error in Nigeria and testing its predictions using a uniquely assembled dataset of property valuations and subsequent transaction prices. Valuation accuracy in developed markets has been extensively studied, revealing tendencies towards anchoring, smoothing, and herding that create systematic biases in appraised values. In emerging markets like Nigeria, additional sources of bias arising from data scarcity, client influence, professional independence constraints, and limited market comparables create a more complex bias landscape that is theoretically distinct from its developed market counterpart. The theoretical contribution is an Emerging Market Valuation Bias Framework that classifies bias sources into four categories: informational bias arising from comparables data deficiency; relational bias from client pressure and professional dependence; methodological bias from inappropriate model transfer; and institutional bias from regulatory and professional governance weakness. The framework generates testable predictions about the magnitude and direction of bias under different market conditions. Empirical testing uses a database of 1,800 paired valuations and subsequent transaction prices assembled from estate surveyor firms and property transaction records in Lagos, Abuja, and Port Harcourt, covering commercial and residential property. Bootstrap regression with outlier-robust standard errors tests predictions. Findings confirm systematic over-valuation for collateral purposes, under-valuation for compulsory purchase, and client-specific anchoring patterns consistent with the relational bias prediction. Implications for NIESV regulatory reform are developed. Keywords: valuation bias, emerging markets, property valuation, professional standards, Nigeria.