Populism, Technocracy, and Economic Governance in Nigeria: The Political Economy of Monetary Policy

This study analyses the tension between populist political pressures and technocratic governance principles in Nigeria's monetary policy domain, examining how the contested institutional autonomy of the Central Bank of Nigeria shapes macroeconomic management and development outcomes. The global debate on central bank independence has taken a distinctive form in Nigeria, where presidents have repeatedly sought to deploy monetary policy instruments for short-term political purposes, creating recurring conflicts with technocratic monetary management principles. Drawing on the political economy of monetary policy, the populism literature, and the new institutionalism, the study develops an original framework for analysing the conditions under which technocratic insulation succeeds or fails in resource-dependent African democracies. The framework is tested through process-tracing of three critical monetary policy episodes: the post-2014 oil price crash management, the COVID-19 fiscal-monetary policy response, and the 2022 to 2023 naira redesign controversy under Governor Emefiele. Primary data includes interviews with former Central Bank of Nigeria officials, finance ministry personnel, and financial sector analysts, alongside documentary analysis of monetary policy communiques, National Assembly testimonies, and court records related to the Emefiele prosecution. The study finds that Central Bank of Nigeria institutional autonomy has been asymmetric, with technical monetary policy decisions enjoying greater insulation than foreign exchange management decisions, where presidential preferences have consistently overridden technocratic recommendations, generating persistent currency misalignment with adverse economic consequences. The study contributes original theoretical development on the conditions for technocratic governance in hybrid political regimes. Keywords: populism, technocracy, monetary policy, Central Bank of Nigeria, political economy