Simulation of Pedestrian Evacuation Dynamics in Kano Central Mosque Using Agent-Based Models

Crowd management during large-scale religious gatherings at the Kano Central Mosque, one of the largest religious assembly venues in North West Nigeria, presents significant public safety challenges given attendance figures exceeding 50,000 worshippers during Friday Juma'at prayers. This study develops an agent-based simulation model to analyse pedestrian evacuation dynamics under emergency scenarios including fire outbreak and structural threat. The simulation environment replicates the mosque's floor plan, exit gate dimensions, and corridor widths based on architectural survey measurements. Individual agents are assigned heterogeneous behavioural parameters including walking speed drawn from a truncated normal distribution, exit choice probability influenced by distance and congestion, and herding tendency parameter reflecting collective behaviour under panic conditions. Simulation experiments are run across 1,000 replications for each of three exit configuration scenarios: current layout, additional east gate, and widened northern corridor. Total evacuation time under the current layout is estimated at 14.6 minutes at the 95th percentile, which exceeds recommended safe evacuation benchmarks for this facility class. Adding an eastern exit gate reduces 95th percentile evacuation time to 9.8 minutes. The study recommends structural modifications and emergency drill protocols aligned with simulation findings. Keywords: agent-based simulation, crowd evacuation, Kano Central Mosque, pedestrian dynamics, emergency planning.