Sino-Nigerian Infrastructure Loans and Debt Sustainability: A Gap Analysis of Available Evidence

Nigeria's accumulation of debt to Chinese financial institutions through infrastructure financing has generated significant public concern, yet comprehensive empirical analysis of the debt sustainability implications of these obligations, accounting for project economic returns and currency exposure, is absent from the Nigerian academic literature. This study conducts a gap analysis of available evidence on Sino-Nigerian infrastructure loan sustainability, synthesising published loan terms, IMF debt sustainability assessments, and infrastructure project economic appraisals. The study employs a systematic review methodology, examining 47 published studies, government reports, and policy documents on China-Nigeria loan arrangements from 2015 to 2023. Primary data were collected through structured interviews with ten Nigerian economists from the Central Bank of Nigeria, the Debt Management Office, and leading universities. The analysis identifies three critical evidence gaps: the absence of transparent loan-by-loan cost-benefit data, the non-publication of complete loan agreement terms by the Nigerian government, and the exclusion of off-balance-sheet Chinese financing from conventional debt sustainability assessments. Available evidence suggests that the Abuja-Kaduna and Lagos-Ibadan railway projects generate economic returns sufficient to service their debt obligations under base-case assumptions, but currency depreciation risk is inadequately accounted for. The study concludes that debt sustainability analysis for Sino-Nigerian loans requires more transparent disclosure and recommends an independent National Assembly review of all infrastructure loan agreements to fill the identified evidence gaps.

Keywords: Sino-Nigerian loans, debt sustainability, infrastructure financing, gap analysis, evidence review