State Capacity, Governance Institutions, and Long-Run Economic Development in Nigeria: A Historical Institutionalist Analysis (1960-2023)

This study examines the relationship between state capacity, governance institutions, and long-run economic development in Nigeria from independence in 1960 to 2023, employing a historical institutionalist analytical framework. Despite possessing significant resource endowments and a large labour force, Nigeria has failed to achieve the structural transformation and sustained growth trajectories predicted by neoclassical models, a paradox that demands deep historical and institutional explanation. Drawing on state capacity theory, historical institutionalism, and recent long-run development economics literature from 2019 to 2024, the study employs a longitudinal qualitative-quantitative mixed-methods research design. Historical state capacity indices are constructed from primary archival sources including colonial administrative records, federal government gazette publications, and institution-building documents. Long-run time series econometric analysis using autoregressive distributed lag models examines relationships between proxy governance variables and economic performance from 1970 to 2023. Archival analysis is combined with 55 elite interviews with economic historians, former central bank governors, and senior retired civil servants. The study develops an original theoretical contribution: a periodised state capacity model for post-colonial federal states that distinguishes between infrastructural and despotic state power in explaining growth trajectories. Findings are expected to challenge both neo-patrimonial and structuralist interpretations of Nigeria's development trajectory and generate theoretically grounded policy recommendations for state capacity building. Keywords: state capacity, governance institutions, long-run development, Nigeria, historical institutionalism