Strategic Hedging Behavior of Southeast Asian States Amid US-China Rivalry

Background: The intensification of strategic competition between the United States and China across economic, technological, and security domains since 2021 has compelled Southeast Asian states to navigate increasingly complex hedging strategies that balance economic dependence on China with security partnerships favoring the United States. Aims/objectives: This study investigates the variation in hedging strategies adopted by different Southeast Asian states and the domestic and structural factors influencing these diplomatic choices. Method: A qualitative comparative case study approach was employed, analyzing defense cooperation agreements, trade dependency data, and interviews with foreign policy officials from three Southeast Asian states between 2022 and 2024. Results: Findings indicate that hedging intensity correlated closely with domestic political stability and economic diversification, with states possessing more diversified trade portfolios demonstrating greater willingness to engage in security cooperation with the United States without triggering significant economic retaliation from China. States with concentrated trade dependency exhibited more cautious, ambiguous positioning. Conclusion: The research concludes that hedging remains a rational and sustainable strategy for Southeast Asian states navigating great power rivalry, though its long-term viability depends on continued economic diversification efforts. Regional multilateral frameworks are recommended to provide collective negotiating leverage that individual hedging strategies alone cannot achieve, particularly as competitive pressure between Washington and Beijing continues to intensify across the region.

Keywords: strategic hedging, Southeast Asia, US-China rivalry, middle power diplomacy, regional security