Study of the Determinants of Food Price Inflation in Nigeria’s North West Zone

Food price inflation in northern Nigeria threatens food security and household welfare, and identifying its determinants in the North West zone provides evidence for agricultural supply chain and monetary policy interventions. This study examined the determinants of food price inflation in Sokoto, Kebbi, Zamfara, Katsina, Kano, Jigawa, and Kaduna States using monthly secondary data from 2018 to 2023. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics Consumer Price Index, CBN exchange rate data, and NIMET rainfall statistics were assembled. Vector Autoregression analysis and Granger causality tests were applied. Results showed that the average food inflation rate across the North West zone was 18.7 percent annually over the period, exceeding the national average by 3.1 percentage points. Naira depreciation was the strongest single predictor of food price increases, with a one percent depreciation associated with a 0.74 percent food price increase after two months. Rainfall shortfalls in the preceding planting season were the second strongest predictor. Transport cost increases explained 22 percent of variance in the model. Insecurity-driven market disruptions were significant but less measurable. The study concludes that food inflation in North West Nigeria is driven by multiple interacting supply and exchange rate factors. Recommendations include strategic food reserves in the North West zone, improved agricultural extension for climate-adaptive farming, and investment in rural road networks to reduce transport bottlenecks.

Keywords: food price inflation, North West Nigeria, VAR model, food security, agricultural supply