The Political Economy of Agricultural Policy Formulation and Implementation in Nigeria: Institutions, Interests, and Outcomes

Agricultural policy in Nigeria has been characterised by frequent reversals, implementation gaps, and distributional outcomes that diverge substantially from stated policy objectives. Political economy frameworks that explain why policy formulation and implementation persistently fail to serve the interests of the smallholder majority have been applied only superficially to Nigerian agricultural governance. This study conducted an original political economy analysis of agricultural policy formulation and implementation in Nigeria using a mixed-methods approach combining qualitative institutional analysis, process tracing of three major agricultural policy episodes from 2012 to 2023, and quantitative analysis of policy outcome data. Primary data were collected through elite interviews with 64 key informants in the Federal Ministry of Agriculture, state agricultural ministries, commodity associations, and civil society organisations. The North-Acemoglu theoretical framework for institutional analysis was adapted to the Nigerian agricultural policy context. Findings revealed that rent-seeking coalitions, elite capture of fertiliser and seed subsidy programmes, and weak bureaucratic capacity systematically distorted policy implementation outcomes. Policy windows opened by external shocks including the 2016 recession and COVID-19 provided temporary opportunities for reform, but institutional inertia limited sustainability. The study makes an original theoretical contribution by developing a Nigeria-specific political economy framework for agricultural policy analysis, providing a foundation for reform-minded institutional design. Keywords: political economy, agricultural policy, Nigeria, institutional analysis, implementation gaps.