The Political Economy of Non-Tariff Barriers in Intra-ECOWAS Trade: Theory, Evidence, and Reform Pathways

This dissertation develops an original political economy framework for understanding the persistence of non-tariff barriers in intra-ECOWAS trade, drawing on longitudinal empirical evidence from Nigeria's trade relationships with five ECOWAS member states and generating reform pathway recommendations grounded in political feasibility analysis. Despite decades of formal ECOWAS trade liberalisation protocols, non-tariff barriers including import bans, standards enforcement disparities, border harassment, and procedural delays remain pervasive and are estimated to impose costs equivalent to a tariff of 20 to 30 percent on intra-regional trade. Existing analyses of NTBs in ECOWAS have been primarily technical and descriptive, neglecting the political economy dynamics that generate and sustain them. The study employs a mixed-methods design combining a disaggregated trade flow econometric model using the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood estimator applied to COMTRADE bilateral trade data from 2010 to 2023 with qualitative political economy analysis drawing on 50 elite interviews with trade ministry officials, border management authorities, business associations, and ECOWAS Secretariat personnel. The theoretical framework integrates the political economy of trade policy, the vested interests theory of non-tariff protection, and the institutional collective action framework for regional integration. The dissertation makes original contributions through the political economy NTB typology, the econometric quantification of NTB trade cost effects at the bilateral sectoral level, and the reform pathway framework that maps reform interventions against political feasibility conditions. Contributions advance both theoretical understanding of regional integration challenges and practical guidance for ECOWAS trade policy reform. Keywords: non-tariff barriers, ECOWAS, political economy, intra-African trade, regional integration