Transport Network Resilience and Climate Change Adaptation: A Complex Systems Analysis for Northern Nigeria

Climate change is inducing unprecedented stresses on transport networks in Northern Nigeria through intensified flooding, desertification-driven erosion, and extreme temperature events that degrade infrastructure and disrupt mobility. This study develops a complex systems analytical framework for understanding transport network resilience to climate change and applies it to the road transport networks of the North West and North East geopolitical zones. The research employs a multi-method design integrating climate scenario modelling using Representative Concentration Pathway projections, network topology analysis of the Federal Road Network database, agent-based simulation of transport disruption and recovery, and participatory scenario planning workshops with 120 transport stakeholders across Sokoto, Kano, and Maiduguri. The study introduces the concept of adaptive transport resilience, distinguishing it from engineered robustness and characterising it through four dimensions: absorptive capacity, adaptive management, transformative potential, and learning infrastructure. Simulation results under a 2 degrees Celsius warming scenario show a 34 percent increase in annual road disruption days in the study area by 2045, with disproportionate impact on agricultural value chain corridors. Agent-based modelling reveals cascading failure patterns that conventional single-event vulnerability assessments fail to capture. The study makes original methodological contributions by integrating climate science, network theory, and participatory planning within a transport management research design. Policy recommendations include climate-resilient road design standards for Northern Nigeria and an adaptive transport management protocol for emergency network reconfiguration. Keywords: transport resilience, climate change, complex systems, Northern Nigeria, network analysis.