Turkey’s Drone Diplomacy and Defense Export Strategy in the Middle East and Africa

Background: Turkey's growing export of armed drones, particularly the Bayraktar TB2, to states across Africa, the Caucasus, and the Middle East since 2021 has reshaped regional military balances and offered Ankara new diplomatic leverage independent of traditional Western arms suppliers. Aims/objectives: This study examines how drone exports function as an instrument of Turkish foreign policy in expanding strategic partnerships and influence beyond its immediate neighborhood. Method: A qualitative analysis of defense trade data, bilateral defense cooperation agreements, and expert interviews with regional security analysts was conducted across three recipient case countries between 2022 and 2024. Results: Findings indicate that drone sales have facilitated deeper Turkish involvement in conflict zones such as Ethiopia and Libya, generating both diplomatic goodwill and accusations of exacerbating regional instability through low-cost, high-impact weaponry. Recipient states valued the absence of stringent human rights conditionalities typically attached to Western arms deals, accelerating procurement decisions. Conclusion: The research concludes that Turkish drone diplomacy has become a significant instrument of middle-power statecraft, enabling Ankara to convert technological niche advantages into geopolitical influence. However, the proliferation of unconditioned arms transfers raises sustained concerns regarding accountability and conflict escalation that warrant closer multilateral scrutiny going forward. This dynamic illustrates the broader transformation of arms exports into a vehicle for diplomatic positioning among emerging middle powers within the contemporary international order.

Keywords: drone diplomacy, Turkey, arms exports, middle power, defense cooperation