Analysing the Determinants of Budgetary Compliance and Fiscal Deficit Management in Nigerian States: An Empirical Panel Study

This study empirically analyses the determinants of budgetary compliance and fiscal deficit management across Nigerian states, employing panel data to fill a critical gap in the subnational fiscal governance literature. Despite the existence of the Fiscal Responsibility Act and state-level fiscal responsibility laws, many Nigerian states consistently fail to comply with fiscal rules, accumulate unsustainable deficits, and experience recurrent budget implementation failures. Drawing on fiscal federalism theory and recent public finance governance literature from 2019 to 2024, the study employs a panel data design covering 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory from 2010 to 2022. Data are sourced from the Fiscal Responsibility Commission, the Debt Management Office, the Accountant General of the Federation, and state budget implementation reports. Fixed effects regression models with controls for political cycle, oil price shocks, and state institutional capacity are applied. The study expects to find that oil revenue dependence, election-year fiscal expansions, weak legislative budget oversight, and low internally generated revenue ratios are significant determinants of fiscal non-compliance. States with more active civil society fiscal monitoring and higher Fiscal Responsibility Commission engagement are expected to exhibit better compliance outcomes. Findings will contribute original empirical evidence to the fiscal federalism debate in Nigeria and support recommendations for strengthening constitutional fiscal rules, automatic stabilisers, and subnational debt management frameworks. Keywords: fiscal compliance, budget management, Nigerian states, panel data, fiscal responsibility