Decentralisation, Local Governance Quality, and Basic Social Service Delivery in South East Nigerian States: An Empirical Panel Analysis

This study empirically analyses the relationship between decentralisation depth, local governance quality, and basic social service delivery outcomes across the five states of South East Nigeria (Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu, and Imo) from 2010 to 2022. Fiscal and administrative decentralisation theory predicts that devolving resources and decision-making to lower government tiers improves service responsiveness and outcomes, but the Nigerian local government system has been widely criticised for weak institutionalisation and state government interference. Drawing on fiscal federalism theory and recent decentralisation evaluation literature from 2019 to 2024, the study employs a panel data research design using state and local government area level data. Data are sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics, state government budget implementation reports, and the Universal Basic Education Commission. Fixed effects and random effects panel regression models with Hausman specification tests are applied, using service delivery proxies including primary school enrolment rates, immunisation coverage, and access to safe water at the local government area level. The study expects to find that local governments with higher own-source revenue shares and elected councils exhibit better service delivery performance, while state government capture of local government finances undermines the decentralisation-service delivery link. Findings will contribute subnational panel evidence to decentralisation debates in Nigeria and recommend institutional reforms to safeguard local government financial autonomy. Keywords: decentralisation, local governance, social service delivery, South East Nigeria, panel analysis