Empirical Assessment of Security Sector Reform and Civilian Trust in the Nigeria Police Force: Evidence from the South South Zone

This study empirically assesses the impact of security sector reform interventions on civilian trust in the Nigeria Police Force, drawing evidence from the South South geopolitical zone in the aftermath of the October 2020 EndSARS protests and subsequent police reform commitments. Civilian trust is widely recognised as a critical enabling condition for effective law enforcement, yet the Nigeria Police Force has historically operated in an environment of deep public distrust rooted in extortion, brutality, and impunity. Drawing on police legitimacy theory and recent security sector reform evaluation literature from 2021 to 2024, the study employs a quantitative research design. Structured questionnaires are administered to 340 adult civilians across four states in the South South zone, capturing dimensions of procedural justice perception, trust in police, and satisfaction with post-EndSARS reform implementation. Structural equation modelling with latent variable estimation is applied to assess the direct and indirect pathways from reform awareness to trust outcomes. The study expects to find that procedural fairness experience significantly predicts trust in police, while awareness of institutional reform measures produces weaker direct trust effects without accompanying visible behavioural change by officers. Community policing visibility and gender-sensitive policing are also found to moderate trust outcomes. Findings will contribute original empirical evidence to the security sector reform literature in Nigeria and generate reform accountability recommendations relevant to the Police Service Commission and the Ministry of Police Affairs. Keywords: security sector reform, civilian trust, Nigeria Police Force, procedural justice, South South Nigeria