Remittances, Household Welfare, and Development Policy: Empirical Evidence from Nigerian Returnee and Diaspora-Connected Communities in Ogun and Osun States

This study empirically examines the relationship between diaspora remittances, household welfare outcomes, and local development dynamics in remittance-receiving communities in Ogun and Osun states, South West Nigeria. Nigeria is among the largest remittance-receiving countries in Africa, yet the development policy infrastructure for maximising remittances' impact on local investment, education, and poverty reduction remains underdeveloped. Drawing on migration-development theory and the transnational household framework, the study is anchored in recent remittance economics literature from 2020 to 2024. A quantitative research design is employed, with 300 remittance-receiving households sampled across six communities in both states using multistage cluster sampling. Structured household welfare questionnaires capture income sources, expenditure patterns, education, healthcare, and asset investment behaviours. Instrumental variables regression using migrant network size as an instrument for remittance receipt is applied to address selection bias. The study expects to find that remittances significantly improve household consumption and education expenditure but are less strongly associated with productive investment in small enterprise or land due to asset market constraints and limited financial intermediation. Policy analysis focuses on the Central Bank of Nigeria's remittance pricing regulations and the absence of remittance investment channelling instruments at the community level. Recommendations address reducing transfer cost barriers, developing diaspora investment bonds, and creating community development matching funds linked to diaspora flows in South West Nigeria. Keywords: remittances, household welfare, diaspora, development policy, South West Nigeria