An Analytical Study of the Factors Explaining Cooperative Sector Size Variation Across Nigerian States

The cooperative sector varies substantially in size and depth across Nigerian states, reflecting differences in economic development, institutional support, agricultural base, and policy environments that have not been systematically analysed. This study analytically examined the state-level factors explaining variation in cooperative sector size across the 36 Nigerian states and the FCT. A cross-sectional analytical design using secondary data was employed, drawing on the National Bureau of Statistics cooperative census data, state-level GDP per capita, agricultural sector size, state human development index scores, financial inclusion indices, and state cooperative department budget data for the 2019 to 2022 period. Cooperative sector size was operationalised through total registered cooperatives per 1,000 population, total cooperative membership, and total cooperative capital as three dependent variables. Multiple regression models were estimated for each outcome. Results showed that agricultural sector share of state GDP was the strongest positive predictor of cooperative membership density (beta = 0.54; p < 0.001). State cooperative department budget per registered society significantly predicted capital growth per cooperative (beta = 0.46; p < 0.001). Human development index was positively associated with total cooperative membership (beta = 0.38; p < 0.01). Urban population proportion showed a non-significant relationship with membership density, challenging the assumption that cooperative growth is predominantly rural. The study provides the first state-level panel analysis of cooperative sector size determinants in Nigeria and contributes original analytical evidence relevant to cooperative sector development planning. Keywords: cooperative sector size, state-level variation, panel regression, cooperative development, Nigeria