Enrolment Trends and Demand for Secondary Education in Zamfara State: An Administrative Analysis

This study examines enrolment trends and the factors driving demand for secondary education in Zamfara State, North West Nigeria, from an administrative planning perspective. Enrolment data serve as a foundational planning resource for education administrators, informing decisions on teacher deployment, infrastructure investment, and curriculum provision. In Zamfara State, secondary school enrolment has been subject to volatility attributable to security instability, poverty, and gender cultural norms, requiring careful analytical interpretation for planning purposes. The study employs a longitudinal descriptive design using secondary enrolment data from the Zamfara State Secondary Education Board spanning 2018 to 2023, supplemented by primary data from 160 education planners and school administrators. Analysis involves trend analysis, regression modelling, and thematic coding of interview data. The study draws on the Demand for Education Theory of Becker. Findings reveal significant gender disparities in enrolment trends, with girl enrolment declining sharply in rural local government areas during periods of heightened insecurity. Population growth is driving demand in urban areas while supply capacity has not kept pace. The study recommends that educational planning in Zamfara State incorporate gender-disaggregated enrolment projections and adopt adaptive planning frameworks that account for security-related enrolment shocks. Keywords: enrolment trends, secondary education demand, educational planning, Zamfara State, gender disparity.