Spatial Econometric Analysis of Real Estate Price Spillovers and Neighbourhood Effects Across Nigerian Metropolitan Areas

This dissertation conducts a comprehensive spatial econometric analysis of real estate price spillovers and neighbourhood effects across three major Nigerian metropolitan areas, developing methodological and empirical contributions to the spatial analysis of property markets in data-limited emerging market contexts. Spatial dependence in property prices, reflecting the fact that nearby properties influence each other's values through common amenity access, neighbourhood quality perceptions, and comparative benchmarking, is theoretically important and policy-relevant, but its systematic empirical characterisation in Nigerian cities has not been undertaken. The dissertation develops three original methodological contributions adapted to Nigerian data conditions: a spatial hedonic model specification that addresses the specific challenges of heterogeneous spatial units and incomplete spatial weighting matrix information in the Nigerian context; a spatial error correction model for the long-run and short-run dynamics of price spillovers between Lagos residential submarkets; and a network-based spatial weighting scheme that uses estate agent referral networks rather than physical distance as the basis for defining spatial connectivity, reflecting the reality that information spillovers in Nigerian property markets occur more through professional networks than through geographic proximity. The empirical applications assemble 3,600 residential property transaction observations across Lagos, Abuja, and Kano, supplemented by neighborhood characteristic data from satellite imagery analysis, government administrative data, and primary fieldwork. Key empirical findings include evidence of strong positive spatial autocorrelation in prices within Lagos but weak cross-city spillovers between the three metropolitan areas. Recommendations for spatial planning policy and investment strategy are derived from the spatial market structure findings. Keywords: spatial econometrics, price spillovers, neighbourhood effects, property market, Nigeria.