Analytical Framework for Assessing Schedule Risk in Infrastructure Megaprojects in Nigeria: A Bayesian Network Approach

Infrastructure megaprojects in Nigeria are characterised by complex schedule risks that traditional deterministic analysis fails to adequately capture. This study develops and validates an analytical framework for assessing schedule risk in Nigerian infrastructure megaprojects using Bayesian network modeling. A two-phase design will first conduct structured expert elicitation with 30 senior project managers and risk analysts from five completed and ongoing megaprojects in road, bridge, and dam construction across Nigeria. Expert-elicited probability estimates will populate a Bayesian network model linking schedule risk factors including procurement delays, community disruptions, funding irregularities, and weather events to schedule overrun outcomes. The model will be validated through sensitivity analysis and comparison with historical project schedule data from the Infrastructure Concession Regulatory Commission. This study introduces Bayesian risk modeling methodology to Nigerian infrastructure project management research, offering a probabilistic alternative to conventional schedule risk tools. Findings will enable more defensible schedule contingency planning for megaproject sponsors and lenders. Keywords: schedule risk, infrastructure megaprojects, Bayesian network, Nigeria, probabilistic analysis