Carbon Market Opportunities for Renewable Energy Projects in Nigeria Under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement

Article 6 of the Paris Agreement establishes new international carbon market mechanisms that create potential revenue streams for renewable energy projects in Nigeria through internationally transferred mitigation outcomes, yet Nigerian project developers and policymakers lack detailed analysis of applicable pathways, benefit-sharing requirements, and corresponding adjustment implications. This study analyses carbon market opportunities for renewable energy projects in Nigeria under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, evaluating the Article 6.2 bilateral mechanism, the Article 6.4 centralised mechanism, and voluntary carbon markets as alternative and complementary pathways. A review of Nigeria's Nationally Determined Contribution and its unconditional and conditional emission reduction targets establishes the corresponding adjustment accounting framework within which internationally transferred mitigation outcomes may be authorised. Case study analysis of five Nigerian renewable energy projects, spanning solar mini-grids, solar water pumps, and biogas systems, estimates potential carbon credit volumes, crediting methodologies applicable under the Clean Development Mechanism and emerging Article 6.4 rules, and revenue projections under three carbon price scenarios. Results indicate that a portfolio of 500 solar mini-grid communities could generate 1.2 to 2.4 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent per year, representing potential annual revenues of 6 to 24 million US dollars at projected voluntary and compliance carbon prices. Governance recommendations address the need for a national designated authority for Article 6 authorisation and a benefit-sharing regulation. Keywords: carbon markets, Article 6, Paris Agreement, Nigeria, renewable energy projects.