Evaluating the Effectiveness of Nigeria’s Renewable Energy Feed-In Tariff Programme

Nigeria introduced a Renewable Energy Feed-In Tariff programme through the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission to incentivise private investment in renewable electricity generation, yet a comprehensive empirical evaluation of the programme's effectiveness in mobilising capacity additions and achieving stated policy objectives has not been published in peer-reviewed literature. This study evaluates the effectiveness of Nigeria's Renewable Energy Feed-In Tariff programme by analysing capacity additions achieved, investment mobilised, contract delivery timelines, and comparison against comparable feed-in tariff programmes in sub-Saharan Africa. Administrative data on awarded feed-in tariff contracts, commissioned capacity, power purchase agreement execution, and grid connection status were obtained through freedom of information requests to the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission and the Rural Electrification Fund. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 16 project developers holding feed-in tariff contracts to document implementation experience, financing constraints, and regulatory interface challenges. Counterfactual analysis estimates the renewable energy investment that would have occurred absent the programme using synthetic control methods. Results indicate that only 14 percent of awarded feed-in tariff capacity has reached commercial operation after ten years, representing a significant programme underperformance relative to South Africa and Ghana comparators. Key failure factors include power purchase agreement bankability limitations, grid connection delays, and currency risk provisions inadequate for international project financing. Programme redesign recommendations focus on standardised bankable agreements and a dedicated grid connection fast-track process. Keywords: feed-in tariff, programme evaluation, renewable energy investment, Nigeria, policy effectiveness.