Transition to Electric Mobility in Nigerian Cities: Feasibility and Energy System Implications

Electric mobility transition in Nigerian cities offers potential benefits for urban air quality improvement, fuel import substitution, and long-run transport cost reduction, but raises critical questions about electricity system readiness, charging infrastructure investment requirements, and the net energy and emissions impacts given Nigeria's current generation mix. This study assesses the feasibility and electricity system implications of transitioning urban passenger transport to electric vehicles in Lagos, Abuja, and Kano, evaluating three scenarios of electric vehicle penetration among private cars, commercial buses, and motorcycle taxis. Urban transport demand surveys and vehicle fleet data from the Federal Road Safety Corps provide baseline transport activity and energy consumption profiles. Charging demand profiles are modelled for residential, workplace, and public charging configurations at penetration levels of 10, 30, and 60 percent by 2035. Power system simulations assess the incremental electricity demand, grid reinforcement requirements, and generation dispatch implications of each scenario. Life cycle greenhouse gas analysis compares electric vehicle emissions against petrol and diesel equivalents under Nigeria's current and projected future grid emission intensity. Results indicate that 30 percent electric vehicle penetration by 2035 increases urban distribution network peak demand by 12 to 18 percent, requiring targeted grid investment but no generation expansion if charging is time-shifted to off-peak periods. Net greenhouse gas savings are positive even under current grid emission intensity and improve substantially as renewable energy share increases. Keywords: electric mobility, Nigeria cities, charging infrastructure, electricity system, greenhouse gas emissions.