Green Hydrogen Production Potential from Renewable Energy Surplus in Nigeria: A Prospective Analysis

Green hydrogen produced from surplus renewable electricity through electrolysis has emerged globally as a strategic energy carrier and industrial feedstock with potential to decarbonise hard-to-abate sectors, and Nigeria's exceptional solar and wind resources position it as a potential future green hydrogen producer for domestic and export markets. This study conducts a prospective analysis of green hydrogen production potential in Nigeria, focusing on regions with the highest renewable energy surplus potential based on resource abundance and limited competing electricity demand, including parts of Sokoto, Kebbi, and Zamfara States in the North West. Renewable energy surplus availability is modelled under three electrification pathway scenarios using hourly power system simulations calibrated to projected 2030 and 2040 electricity system configurations. Electrolyser technology options including alkaline, proton exchange membrane, and solid oxide systems are evaluated against capital cost, efficiency, and operational flexibility parameters. Production cost estimates for green hydrogen are computed as a function of renewable electricity cost, electrolyser capital and operating costs, and capacity factor. Results indicate that green hydrogen production costs of 3.2 to 4.8 US dollars per kilogramme are achievable in 2035 under favourable cost assumptions, comparable to projected global cost trajectories. Export pathways via Ammonia conversion and shipping through the Gulf of Guinea are assessed as technically feasible. The study recommends government designation of a green hydrogen development zone and initiation of a feasibility study for the first commercial pilot. Keywords: green hydrogen, renewable energy surplus, Nigeria, electrolysis, prospective analysis.