Climate Change Vulnerability, Adaptive Capacity, and Agricultural Policy Response in North West Nigeria: An Empirical Assessment

This study empirically assesses climate change vulnerability profiles and adaptive capacity among farming communities in North West Nigeria, and evaluates the responsiveness of current agricultural policy frameworks to emerging climate risks. The North West zone, encompassing Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, and Zamfara states, faces escalating threats from erratic rainfall, rising temperatures, desertification, and shifting planting seasons that are already depressing agricultural yields. Drawing on the vulnerability-resilience framework and recent climate-agriculture adaptation literature from 2020 to 2024, the study employs a mixed-methods research design. Quantitative data are gathered from 350 smallholder farmers across five North West states using a structured vulnerability and adaptive capacity survey instrument. Climate data are obtained from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency, and agricultural yield data are sourced from state Agricultural Development Programme records. Ordinary least squares and probit regression models are applied. The study expects to find significant heterogeneity in adaptive capacity across wealth strata, land tenure status, and access to extension services, with women-headed households exhibiting higher climate vulnerability due to intersecting resource constraints. Policy analysis of the National Agricultural Resilience Framework and state-level climate action plans reveals major implementation gaps. Recommendations will target differential climate adaptation support, climate information services expansion, and gender-responsive adaptive agricultural programming in the North West zone. Keywords: climate change vulnerability, adaptive capacity, agricultural policy, North West Nigeria, smallholder farmers