Comparative Analysis of Traditional and Agile Project Management in Nigerian Government IT Projects: Performance and Contextual Factors

Nigerian government IT projects have historically adopted traditional waterfall methodologies, but growing digital transformation pressures are driving agile adoption, creating an empirical comparison opportunity. This study comparatively analyzes performance outcomes of traditional and agile project management in government IT projects across Nigeria. A cross-sectional comparative design will recruit 260 government IT project managers, business analysts, and vendors from federal and state agencies that have completed IT projects under both methodology types. Project performance will be measured across delivery time, cost, scope achievement, and user adoption. MANOVA will compare performance outcomes across methodology groups, controlling for project complexity and organizational size. Qualitative semi-structured interviews with 20 project directors will explore contextual factors moderating methodology effectiveness. This study directly addresses the gap in empirical comparative methodology evidence from Nigerian public sector IT, where adoption decisions are frequently made without an evidence base. Findings will guide IT project methodology selection policy for the National Information Technology Development Agency. Keywords: traditional project management, agile, government IT projects, Nigeria, methodology comparison