Electoral Violence, Voter Behaviour, and Democratic Consolidation in North West Nigeria: Evidence from the 2019 and 2023 General Elections

This study examines the relationship between electoral violence, voter behaviour, and democratic consolidation in North West Nigeria, drawing on empirical evidence from the 2019 and 2023 general elections. Electoral violence in the North West zone has been a significant and growing threat to Nigeria's democratic consolidation, with widespread reports of voter intimidation, ballot snatching, and politically motivated killings in states including Kano, Katsina, Kaduna, and Zamfara. Drawing on democratic theory, electoral violence theory, and recent empirical studies from 2020 to 2024, the study employs a mixed-methods comparative research design. Primary data are gathered from 380 voters, election observers, and local civil society representatives across six North West states through structured questionnaires and in-depth interviews. Secondary data include Independent National Electoral Commission collation records, security incident logs from CLEEN Foundation, and Situation Room observer reports. Multinomial logistic regression is applied to voter behaviour data, while thematic analysis addresses qualitative interview data. The study expects to find that electoral violence significantly suppresses voter turnout and skews electoral outcomes in competitive constituencies, weakening the representational quality of democratic governance. It also examines how community resilience factors and election security deployment patterns moderate violence outcomes. Findings will contribute to the literature on democratic backsliding in West Africa and provide recommendations for evidence-based electoral security and voter protection programming. Keywords: electoral violence, voter behaviour, democratic consolidation, North West Nigeria, elections