Developing an Original Spatial Demography Framework for Infrastructure Planning in Nigerian Metropolitan Areas

Population distribution within Nigerian metropolitan areas is spatially heterogeneous in ways that aggregate city-level data cannot capture, and developing an original spatial demography framework that combines demographic methods with geospatial analysis for infrastructure planning fills a critical gap in both urban demography and planning methodology. This study developed an original Spatial Demography Framework for Infrastructure Planning in Nigerian Metropolitan Areas, with methodological development and testing in Lagos, Kano, and Port Harcourt. A framework development methodology combining spatial statistics, demographic methods, and infrastructure planning theory was employed over 24 months. The framework development drew on satellite imagery population estimation, household survey spatial sampling design theory, and infrastructure accessibility modelling. Original methodological contributions include a sub-LGA population density estimation procedure using building footprint extraction from high-resolution satellite imagery validated against household survey data, and an infrastructure accessibility index that combines population-weighted travel time to services with demographic need weights. Application of the framework to the three metropolitan areas identified 23 high-priority infrastructure investment zones where population density, demographic need, and infrastructure deficit were simultaneously highest. The original SDF-Nigeria framework enables metropolitan planning that accounts for spatial demographic heterogeneity rather than uniform LGA-level averages. Expert review by 20 spatial demographers and urban planners confirmed the framework's methodological originality and planning relevance. The study recommends Federal Ministry of Works adoption of the framework for the national infrastructure investment prioritisation process.

Keywords: spatial demography, infrastructure planning, Nigerian cities, GIS, metropolitan planning