Developing Locust and Pest Invasion Early Warning Indicators Using Meteorological Data in the North West Zone

Desert locust invasions and related agricultural pests pose episodic but catastrophic threats to food security in Nigeria's North West geopolitical zone, and meteorological conditions governing their breeding and movement are well-established scientific determinants of outbreak dynamics. This study develops meteorological early warning indicators for locust and crop pest invasion risk in Katsina, Sokoto, and Zamfara states by linking historical pest outbreak records with antecedent meteorological conditions. Pest outbreak data from the FAO Desert Locust Information Service and the Nigeria Agricultural Quarantine Service for 2019 to 2023 were analyzed alongside rainfall, soil moisture, and surface temperature records from NiMet synoptic stations. Logistic regression and conditional probability analysis were applied to identify meteorological preconditions most strongly associated with outbreak initiation and movement events within northern Nigeria. Results demonstrate that the combination of above-normal early season rainfall (May to June SPI above 1.2) followed by a soil drying phase in July significantly elevates outbreak probability in border LGAs of Katsina and Sokoto. The derived meteorological indicator framework achieves a probability of detection of 0.81 and false alarm rate of 0.28 when evaluated against held-out outbreak records. An operational indicator bulletin template for use by NiMet North West regional office is proposed as a deliverable. Recommendations include a collaborative monitoring arrangement between NiMet, FAO, and the Federal Department of Agriculture for real-time indicator tracking. Keywords: desert locust, pest early warning, meteorological indicators, North West Nigeria, food security.