Operational Use of Numerical Weather Prediction Products by Forecasters at NiMet Lagos Office

Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are the backbone of modern operational weather forecasting, yet the degree to which NWP products are effectively integrated into forecast production routines varies significantly across meteorological agencies in Africa. This study examines the operational use of NWP products by professional forecasters at the NiMet Lagos regional office, assessing the types of products accessed, frequency of use, forecaster skill in NWP interpretation, and the relationship between NWP utilization and forecast quality outcomes. A mixed-method approach combined a structured survey administered to 22 operational forecasters, observations of 60 forecast production sessions, and comparative analysis of forecasts produced with and without documented NWP consultation during March to August 2023. Products evaluated include ECMWF, GFS, and UKMET global model outputs accessed through the NiMet operational workstation. Results indicate that ECMWF model outputs are the most frequently consulted product, used in 72 percent of observed forecast sessions, while mesoscale model products are rarely utilized due to workstation access limitations. Forecasters with more than five years of experience demonstrate significantly more nuanced integration of NWP guidance with synoptic reasoning, producing forecasts with statistically higher critical success index scores for thunderstorm occurrence. The study recommends structured NWP interpretation training for junior forecasters and deployment of a regional high-resolution mesoscale model for southwestern Nigeria. Keywords: numerical weather prediction, operational forecasting, NiMet Lagos, ECMWF, forecast quality.