Empirical Analysis of Critical Success Factors in Public-Private Partnership Road Projects in South West Nigeria

Public-private partnership road projects in South West Nigeria have produced mixed delivery outcomes, and a systematic empirical analysis of their critical success factors (CSFs) is absent from the literature. This study empirically identifies and ranks CSFs in PPP road projects in Lagos, Ogun, and Oyo States using a rigorous analytical framework. A cross-sectional survey will recruit 250 PPP practitioners including government concession managers, private sector project directors, financial advisors, and independent monitors. A validated questionnaire will assess 40 potential CSFs drawn from global PPP literature adapted for Nigerian regulatory and institutional contexts. Exploratory factor analysis will reduce items to underlying CSF dimensions, and structural equation modeling will examine causal relationships between CSF dimensions and project success outcomes. This study fills a critical gap: while Nigerian PPP failures have been documented qualitatively, no quantitative CSF model has been developed for South West Nigeria's road sector. Findings will contribute an empirically grounded CSF model directly applicable to the Infrastructure Concession Regulatory Commission's project appraisal guidelines. Keywords: critical success factors, public-private partnerships, road projects, South West Nigeria, structural equation modeling