Interrogating the Nexus Between Party Politics, Policy Continuity, and Development Planning in Nigeria’s Fourth Republic (1999-2023)

This study interrogates the relationship between party political dynamics, policy continuity, and development planning outcomes in Nigeria's Fourth Republic spanning 1999 to 2023. A recurring critique of Nigerian governance is that changes in political party control at federal and state levels frequently result in the abandonment of predecessor development plans, creating cyclical planning discontinuities that undermine long-term development. Drawing on institutionalist political theory, development planning theory, and recent political economy literature from 2019 to 2024, the study employs a mixed-methods research design. Primary data are gathered through elite semi-structured interviews with 60 current and former ministers, commissioners, senior civil servants, and development planning academics. Secondary data consist of national development plan documents, Medium Term Expenditure Frameworks, and budget implementation reports from 1999 to 2023. Thematic analysis and historical institutionalism are applied to the qualitative data. The study expects to find systematic patterns of plan abandonment at political transitions, strategic use of development planning as electoral positioning rather than implementation commitment, and the resilience of isolated technocratic planning units as a partial institutional buffer against political disruption. Findings will make an original analytical contribution to understanding the political economy of development planning in Nigeria and will generate recommendations for institutionalising bipartisan development compacts and long-term planning laws with cross-party legislative endorsement. Keywords: party politics, policy continuity, development planning, Nigeria, Fourth Republic