Natural Resource Governance, Revenue Transparency, and Development Outcomes in Nigeria’s Niger Delta: An Empirical Assessment

This study empirically assesses the relationship between natural resource governance quality, revenue transparency, and development outcomes in Nigeria's Niger Delta states. The resource curse paradox, wherein oil-rich states exhibit persistently poor development indicators, has been extensively theorised but insufficiently tested using granular subnational data from the Nigerian context. Drawing on the resource curse framework, governance transparency theory, and recent political economy literature from 2019 to 2024, the study employs a mixed-methods panel research design covering the nine Niger Delta states from 2012 to 2023. Quantitative data are sourced from the Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative audit reports, National Bureau of Statistics, World Bank Subnational Human Development Index estimates, and state budget documents. Panel regression with state-level fixed effects is applied, supplemented by semi-structured interviews with resource governance experts and civil society oil watch monitors. The study expects to find a non-linear relationship between oil revenue accruals and human development outcomes, mediated by governance quality and NEITI compliance levels. States with higher transparency scores and more active civil society oil monitoring are expected to record better development outcomes than those with comparable revenues but weaker accountability institutions. Findings will advance subnational evidence on the resource-governance-development nexus and inform recommendations for strengthening NEITI's mandate and civil society monitoring in the Niger Delta. Keywords: natural resource governance, revenue transparency, Niger Delta, resource curse, NEITI