Trade Liberalisation, Manufacturing Output, and Employment in Nigeria: An Empirical Analysis (2000-2022)

This study empirically analyses the effects of trade liberalisation on manufacturing sector output and employment generation in Nigeria from 2000 to 2022. Nigeria's engagement with trade liberalisation through WTO commitments, ECOWAS trade protocols, and, more recently, the African Continental Free Trade Area, has generated ongoing policy debates about its net effects on domestic industrial competitiveness and labour markets. Drawing on the Heckscher-Ohlin trade theory and recent empirical literature on trade and manufacturing in developing economies from 2020 to 2024, the study adopts a quantitative research design using time series data. Secondary data are sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin, National Bureau of Statistics manufacturing output reports, and World Bank trade statistics. A Vector Autoregression model and Granger causality tests are applied to examine the dynamic relationships between trade openness indices, real manufacturing value added, and formal sector employment. The study expects to find evidence of deindustrialisation pressures associated with surges in manufactured imports from Asia, particularly in textiles, plastics, and consumer electronics, alongside heterogeneous effects across high-technology and resource-based manufacturing sub-sectors. It also analyses how exchange rate volatility mediates trade-manufacturing linkages. Recommendations will address industrial policy design options compatible with Nigeria's trade commitments, including targeted infant industry protections, export promotion strategies, and investment in manufacturing productivity. Keywords: trade liberalisation, manufacturing output, employment, Nigeria, Vector Autoregression