Quantifying the Energy Justice Implications of Nigeria’s Electricity Tariff Structure

Electricity tariff structures in Nigeria have been revised multiple times in recent years through multi-year tariff orders issued by the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission, yet the distributional and energy justice implications of these tariff structures across income groups and geographic regions have not been rigorously quantified in academic literature. This study quantifies the energy justice implications of Nigeria's current residential electricity tariff structure, applying energy justice frameworks focused on distributional equity, recognition, and procedural fairness. Household electricity expenditure data disaggregated by tariff band, income quintile, and geopolitical zone were assembled from the Nigeria Living Standards Survey 2022 and Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission tariff order data. Incidence analysis computes electricity expenditure as a share of household income across the distribution, distinguishing between grid-connected consumers and those relying on generators and solar home systems. Affordability threshold analysis identifies households exceeding the international benchmark of 5 percent of income on energy. Results demonstrate that electricity expenditure represents 7.4 percent of income for the poorest quintile of grid-connected households, exceeding the affordability threshold, while wealthier households consuming higher volumes benefit proportionally more from subsidised lower tariff bands. Communities in the North East and North West with lowest grid access rates bear the highest effective energy costs through generator dependence. The study recommends a lifeline tariff extension and a transparent social tariff mechanism targeting energy-poor households. Keywords: energy justice, electricity tariff, distributional equity, Nigeria, affordability.