Population Growth, Urban Sprawl, and Local Government Planning Capacity in Ogun State: An Empirical Investigation

This study empirically investigates how rapid population growth and associated urban sprawl are stretching local government planning capacity in Ogun State, South West Nigeria. Ogun State, situated in the Lagos-Ibadan corridor, has experienced some of Nigeria's fastest urbanization rates in recent years driven by its proximity to Lagos and growing industrial investment. This growth is straining local government land use management, infrastructure planning, development control systems, and revenue generation in ways that traditional planning frameworks are ill-equipped to address. Guided by the Urban Systems Theory and the Planning Capacity Framework, this research collects primary data from 230 respondents across seven local government areas including town planners, development control officers, real estate developers, residents of expanding communities, and Ogun State Urban Renewal Authority officials. Secondary data includes population projection data from the National Population Commission, Ogun State government master plans, and academic literature on rapid urbanization and planning in secondary African cities. Multiple regression analysis and spatial growth modeling are employed. The study fills a gap in empirical research on urbanization-local government planning capacity relationships in Nigeria's fastest-growing peri-urban states. Findings are expected to demonstrate that population growth rates significantly exceed local government planning staff capacity, infrastructure financing, and regulatory enforcement capacity, resulting in uncontrolled sprawl and diminished public service access. Recommendations include dynamic local government capacity scaling frameworks, inter-council regional planning bodies, and digitization of development control systems. Keywords: Population growth, urban sprawl, local government, planning capacity, Ogun State.