Decentralization, Local Government Autonomy, and Service Delivery Outcomes in Nigeria: An Empirical Analysis of Selected States

This study empirically examines the relationship between degrees of decentralization, local government fiscal and political autonomy, and service delivery outcomes across selected Nigerian states from the six geopolitical zones. While the theoretical literature consistently argues that greater decentralization improves governance responsiveness and service efficiency, empirical evidence from the Nigerian context remains contested, partly due to the uneven and politically managed nature of devolution in the country. This research addresses a significant gap in the empirical literature by developing and testing a composite Local Government Autonomy Index across 30 local government areas drawn from Kano, Lagos, Enugu, Benue, Bauchi, and Rivers States. Primary data is gathered through structured questionnaires administered to 300 respondents comprising council officials, citizens, and civil society actors. Secondary data includes National Bureau of Statistics service delivery indicators, Revenue Mobilization Allocation and Fiscal Commission reports, and panel data on local government expenditures for the period 2019 to 2024. Multiple regression analysis and panel data econometrics are employed. The Fiscal Federalism Theory of Oates and the New Institutionalism Framework provide the theoretical grounding. Findings are expected to demonstrate that local governments with higher fiscal autonomy and lower state interference achieve significantly better outcomes in primary healthcare attendance, school enrollment, and road maintenance. The study fills an empirical gap by providing cross-state comparative evidence on the governance-service delivery nexus in Nigerian local government. Keywords: Decentralization, local government autonomy, service delivery, empirical analysis, Nigeria.