Modelling Carbon Emission Reductions from Nigeria’s Energy Transition Plan: A Systems Dynamics Approach

Nigeria's Energy Transition Plan, launched in 2022, sets ambitious targets for decarbonising the energy sector, expanding electricity access, and achieving net-zero emissions by 2060, yet the interdependencies between policy interventions, investment flows, technology deployment rates, and emission outcomes have not been modelled using systems dynamics approaches that capture feedback loops and non-linear dynamics. This study develops a systems dynamics model of carbon emission reductions achievable through Nigeria's Energy Transition Plan, simulating the interactions between renewable energy capacity addition, fossil fuel displacement, electrification rate progress, industrial efficiency improvements, and macroeconomic feedbacks over the period 2025 to 2060. Model structure and parameter values were developed through expert consultations with energy planning professionals and validation against historical energy and emission data. Four policy scenarios representing different financing mobilisation levels, technology adoption rates, and political continuity assumptions are simulated. Results indicate that under the base case scenario, Nigeria achieves a 42 percent reduction in energy sector emissions by 2040 relative to a business-as-usual trajectory, falling short of the 2060 net-zero target without additional policy acceleration. Achieving net-zero requires tripling the current rate of renewable energy capacity addition by 2030, which demands an estimated 23 billion US dollars of additional annual investment. Feedback loops related to electricity tariff affordability and political economy are identified as key system vulnerabilities. Keywords: systems dynamics, carbon emissions, Energy Transition Plan, Nigeria, climate modelling.